Update: Final score: Cowboys 34, Texans 30. Dallas won outright and covered the +2.5 spread, so our Texans pick missed. Next up for Dallas: Thursday Night Football vs. the Buccaneers on October 8.
Cowboys vs Texans prediction: Texans 27, Cowboys 24. Houston is 0-3 and really needs a win at home. Dallas has the NFL’s No. 4 offense by EPA per snap. On the other side, Dallas has the worst defense in that same EPA ranking. This game kicks off Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET. Joey Porter Jr., the new cornerback, is set to play his first game for the Cowboys. Odds, injury news, and our pick are below.
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Cowboys vs Texans Week 4 Odds and Key Info
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Date and time | Sunday, October 4, 2026, 1:00 PM ET |
| Location | Houston |
| Spread | Cowboys +2.5 (as of midweek; lines move) |
| Texans’ win probability | About 60% |
| Last week | Cowboys lost 34-31 to the Ravens; Texans lost 19-17 to the Colts |
Cowboys: Elite Offense, Worst Defense
Over the last three weeks, Dallas sits fourth in the NFL for EPA per play. On offense, the team is also seventh in success rate. Dak Prescott leads the way, with help from CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. But the bigger issue is defense. Dallas is last in the league for both EPA per play and success rate. They also give up 6.0 yards per play. That is part of why the Cowboys moved assets. They traded a 2028 second-round pick and a 2027 sixth-round pick for Porter. If you want the full story on the trade, see our Joey Porter Jr. grades.
Will Joey Porter Jr. Play on Sunday?
Very likely. Porter missed the first three games with a back issue and a contract dispute, but he did not appear on Dallas’s injury report all week, and he said he is ready if the team wants him. Dallas has not made an official announcement, and we expect a snap count because he is new to the scheme. Shavon Revel Jr. is also good to go at cornerback, and safety Malik Hooker is a possibility to return. Durant and Overshown are expected to sit.
Texans: Must-Win Mode With Nico Collins Back
Houston is 0-3 and in a must-win spot. The good news is that wide receiver Nico Collins returned to practice and should give its offense its best receiving target back. Houston’s defense is only 19th in EPA per pass and was torched by Josh Allen in Week 1, which sets up a big day for Prescott.
The bad news is Houston’s second level. For this game, Azeez Al-Shaair and M.J. Stewart are out. Henry To’oTo’o, a starting linebacker, is on injured reserve. On the injury report, defensive ends Jadeveon Clowney and Logan Hall are questionable. Jake Hansen is also questionable, along with guard Ed Ingram.
Cowboys vs Texans Prediction: Expert Picks
- Sports Illustrated: Cowboys +2.5, citing Dallas’s offense against Houston’s secondary.
- CBS Sports (Pete Prisco): Texans to win straight up.
Our Cowboys vs Texans Prediction
We expect a shootout. Dallas will score, but Houston is at home, desperate and getting Collins back, and Porter is unlikely to fix a defense this bad in one week. Prediction: Texans 27, Cowboys 24. With that score, Dallas would cover +2.5. This is just our view, not betting advice. Lines shift fast, so check live odds at a sportsbook.
Cowboys vs Texans FAQ
What time is Cowboys vs Texans?
Sunday, October 4, at 1:00 PM ET.
Is Joey Porter Jr. playing for the Cowboys?
He is expected to debut on Sunday, though Dallas has not made it official and he may have a limited snap count.
Is Nico Collins playing?
He returned to practice this week and is expected back for Houston.
Who is favored?
Houston is the home favorite by about 2.5 points, with a win probability near 60%.
Related: our Yankees vs Rays ALDS prediction. Sources include Sports Illustrated’s Week 4 preview and CBS Sports on Porter.
Your take: Do the Cowboys finally get their first road win of the season, or do the Texans avoid 0-4? Drop your score prediction in the comments.
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