Series update: The Dream won Game 1, 92-82, and Game 2, 101-98 in overtime, to lead the series 2-0. Game 3 is Friday, October 9, in New York. Our Dream win in Game 1 pick was right, but our Liberty-in-five series pick is now in trouble. Read about the Dream star behind the run in our Angel Reese biography.
Liberty vs Dream Prediction: Take Game 1. Liberty win the whole series in five games. The No. 4 seed Atlanta Dream will play the No. 8 seed New York Liberty. This is a best-of-five WNBA semifinal. The first game is Sunday, October 4, at State Farm Arena. Both teams got through their first-round matchups with sweeps. Breanna Stewart has stood out a lot for New York. Next up: schedule, betting odds, and our pick.
Article Contents
Liberty vs Dream WNBA Semifinals Schedule
| Game | Date | Location |
|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | Sunday, October 4 (1:00 PM ET, per betting previews) | Atlanta |
| Game 2 | Wednesday, October 7 | Atlanta |
| Game 3 | Friday, October 9 | New York |
| Game 4* | TBD | New York |
| Game 5* | TBD | Atlanta |
*If necessary. Tip times and TV details were still being finalized at publication, so confirm them on WNBA.com.
How the Dream Got Here
Atlanta went 30-14 and got the No. 4 seed. In the first round, it handled the Washington Mystics in a best of three sweep. The scores were 92-77 and 93-75. This is the Dream’s first time in the semifinals since 2018. Earlier in the year, Atlanta also played the Liberty three times and won that matchup, 2-1.
How the Liberty Got Here
New York went 26-18 and entered as the No. 8 seed. They also made history. For the first time, a No. 8 team beat a No. 1 team. The Liberty did it by taking down Minnesota, 91-75 and 87-71. In both games, New York kept the Lynx to fewer than 80 points. And they feel good about what comes next. They already won the title in 2024.
Players to Watch
- Breanna Stewart (Liberty): Stewart is having arguably her best season in a Liberty uniform after winning the FIBA MVP trophy. She totaled 55 points, 17 rebounds, 10 assists, four steals and four blocks in the first round.
- Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty): Atlanta’s perimeter defenders will try to pressure her and push the Liberty deeper into half-court possessions.
- The Dream’s perimeter defense: It is Atlanta’s best way to disrupt New York’s rhythm and create scoring bursts off turnovers.
Liberty vs Dream Odds
- Game 1 spread: Dream -3.5, Liberty +3.5
- Game 1 total: 173.5
- Series odds: BetMGM’s writers like the Liberty at +120 on the series moneyline, while one playoff probability model gives the Dream about a 66% chance to win the series.
Odds move quickly, so check a sportsbook for current prices.
Our Liberty vs Dream Prediction
The Dream have home court and a regular-season edge, so we like them to take Game 1 narrowly, around 86-82. Over a five-game series, though, we trust the Liberty. They have Stewart playing at an MVP level, championship experience, and a defense that has just held a top seed under 80 twice. Pick: Dream win Game 1, Liberty win the series 3-2. This is our opinion, not betting advice.
Why This WNBA Semifinal Matters
The winner moves on to the WNBA Finals, and this series pairs a franchise ending a long semifinal drought with a former champion that keeps beating higher seeds. That contrast, plus Stewart’s form, makes it one of the most watchable matchups of the postseason.
Who Else Is in the WNBA Semifinals?
Las Vegas Aces, the defending champs, came in as the No. 3 seed. They topped the Indiana Fever 94-83 in a must-win Game 3. That result sent them to the semifinals. Next, the Aces will face whoever wins the Golden State Valkyries and Dallas Wings matchup. That series is tied and headed to Game 3.
Liberty vs Dream FAQ
When is Liberty vs Dream Game 1?
Sunday, October 4, at State Farm Arena in Atlanta. Betting previews list a 1:00 PM ET tip.
How many games is the WNBA semifinal series?
It is a best-of-five series, so the first team to win three games advances to the WNBA Finals.
Who has home-court advantage?
Atlanta, as the higher seed, hosts Games 1, 2 and 5. New York hosts Games 3 and 4.
Who won the regular-season series?
The Dream, 2-1.
More US sports predictions: our Cowboys vs Texans Week 4 prediction and Yankees vs Rays ALDS prediction. Series details come from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and CBS Sports’ playoff bracket.
Your take: Dream or Liberty: who reaches the WNBA Finals, and in how many games? Tell us in the comments.
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